Tickmill : Weekly Market Outlook (6 April 2020)

Title : Weekly Market Outlook (6 April 2020)

Broker : Tickmill

Description :

USDCAD

What happened previously? – Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US declined by 701,000 in March, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed February’s increase of 275,000 (revised from 273,000) and missed the market expectation of -100,000 by a wide margin. The U.S. stock index closed in red on Friday USD with Dow Jones down 1.69%, but U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is not much affected. DXY was not much affected by the news since much of the unemployment pain is expected. On the other side, oil prices dropped during overnight trading on Sunday after OPEC+ announced it was delaying its meeting initially scheduled for Monday, stoking fears on the Street that a production cut might face hurdles. The landscape looks quite mixed on Monday morning and is lacking clear direction.

What can we expect? – We are seeing price to test 1st resistance at 1.42677 and Stochastics is also reaching resistance level. 1st resistance level is a confluence level of horizontal swing high resistance and 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. If price breaks and closes above this level, we might turn bullish from bearish since it opens up more upside.

UKOIL

What happened previously? – Oil surged last week — WTI and Brent are both coming off their best week on record — as Saudi Arabia called a meeting between between OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, signalling there could be progress on a production cut. But oil prices opened low on Monday morning after OPEC+ announced it was delaying its meeting initially scheduled for Monday, stoking fears on the Street that a production cut might face hurdles.

What can we expect? – We remain bullish for today’s trading. We are seeing the price to retest the first support at 30.61 and is likely to bounce from there. Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bullishness. 1st support level happens to be where the 50% Fibonacci retracement lines up with 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

XAUUSD

What happened previously? – Gold is stabilizing on Monday after advanced on Friday after the sluggish Nonfarm payroll number. Dollar rose after President Trump said he saw signs that the coronavirus outbreak was beginning to stabilize or level off in the U.S..Gold is likely to drop upon a strengthening USD. We remain bearish fundamentally for XAUUSD.

What can we expect? – We remain bearish technically as the price is approaching 1st resistance at 1644.22 and is likely to drop from there. Stochastics is also showing signs of oversold reaching a level of 97.29 for a drop to happen. The 1st resistance happens to be where 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low line up well and could serve as a key resistance level.

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