ICM Technical Analysis : GBP/USD 4 March 2020

ICM Technical Analysis : GBPUSD – 4 March 2020

The area between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement value at 1.2838, H4 resistance at 1.2824 and the 1.28 handle (yellow) remains a prominent zone of resistance on the H4 timeframe, despite GBP/USD firming above 1.28 after the Federal Reserve announced, in a surprise move, a 50-bps cut. This weighed on the broad dollar index, guiding the DXY to lows of 96.98, registering losses for a fourth successive session south of multi-year highs at 99.91.

Since the beginning of the year, weekly price has been languishing beneath long-standing trend line resistance, pencilled in from the high 1.5930. Last week, however, witnessed sellers strengthen their grip and connect with the 2019 yearly opening level at 1.2739, whipsawing through demand around the 1.2939 region (black arrow) and registering fresh YTD lows. A breach of the said support would side-line hopes of recovery and shine the spotlight on support from 1.2369.

In conjunction with the weekly timeframe, we can see price action on the daily timeframe ran into a particularly interesting area of support at 1.2769, a 127.2% Fibonacci extension at 1.2738 and the 200-day SMA. Note the said SMA has been flattening since mid-October 2019. Trend line resistance, extended from the high 1.3514, is next in line should we advance. Failure to hold at 1.2769, nonetheless, has support at 1.2524 to target, which happens to merge closely with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.2527.

Areas of consideration:

Regardless of the unit clocking YTD lows last week, the combined weekly and daily supports between 1.2739 and 1.2769 is potentially enough to inspire a recovery.

Traders, however, are likely waiting for a H4 close beyond the current H4 resistance area mentioned above at 1.2838/1.28 before considering upside free to 1.29ish. Of course, a break of the current H4 resistance area, followed up with a strong retest off 1.28, is likely a preferred, more conservative, scenario for entry.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only.