In recent sessions, the H4 candles dipped a toe in waters south of the 1.29 handle, testing weekly lows around the 1.2860 region. The US dollar index observed further loss, extending its recent pullback from multi-year tops amid a slump in US Treasury yields to fresh all-time lows at 1.23%, likely helping limit loss beneath 1.29.
Technically, the close beneath 1.29 is possibly viewed as a bearish pointer, with some anticipating a retest at the underside of the round number today. Aside from the 1.2849 February 20th low, the next support target on the H4 scale can be seen at 1.2824.
Further out, weekly price is seen languishing beneath long-standing trend line resistance, pencilled in from the high 1.5930, though demand around the 1.2939 region is also still in motion (black arrow). Continued downside may imply a break of the said demand, tripping sell stops and testing the 2019 yearly opening level at 1.2739. A break higher, on the other hand, could see the 2018 yearly opening level enter the fight at 1.3503.
From the daily timeframe, we can see price recently turned lower a touch below trend line resistance, taken from the high 1.3514. Further downside from here has support fixed at 1.2769, a 127.2% Fibonacci extension at 1.2738 and the 200-day SMA. Note the said SMA has been flattening since mid-October 2019.
Given the overall bearish vibe in this market right now, a retest at 1.29 may hold and unlock the door for bearish scenarios to H4 support at 1.2824, closely shadowed by the 1.28 region. As round numbers are prone to whipsaws, sellers may find waiting for additional confirmation to form a safer alternative before pulling the trigger.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only.