AUD/USD traded comfortably over 0.65 amid USD weakness Monday, as attention turns to the RBA to see whether interest rates are lowered by 25bps, as unanimously anticipated. Analytics also display channel support on the H4 timeframe, extended from the low 0.6850. In terms of resistance on this scale, price could swerve towards the 0.66 handle and channel resistance, etched from the high 0.7031.
AUD/USD on the weekly scale is, despite Monday’s recovery above 0.65, now tilting towards support coming in at 0.6359. Eight out of nine weeks has seen the pair register losses, since topping a touch south of the 2019 yearly opening level at 0.7042, and completing a five-month rising wedge pattern. Note the primary trend has faced south since 2018, and we’re now testing decade lows in this market.
After violating channel support on the daily timeframe, taken from the low 0.6677, and later retesting the lower boundary as resistance, renewed selling emerged, with Friday aggressively grasping support at 0.6508. Holding above the current support could force a retest at the said channel resistance. 0.6301 remains in view as the next support target, in the event we press for lower ground over the coming weeks.
While further recovery could form on the H4 and daily timeframes, the threat of additional downside materialising on the weekly timeframe may deter buyers in this market. The long-term primary trend should also not be overlooked.
Despite this, some buyers likely have 0.65 eyed as potential support today, targeting 0.66, while sellers perhaps have eyes on a H4 close back beneath 0.65 for a run to Friday’s low at 0.6433, the 0.64 handle on the H4 scale, followed by weekly support at 0.6359.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only.