FPM Technical Analysis : AUD/USD 4 March 2020

FPM Technical Analysis : AUDUSD (4 March 2020)

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Demand at 0.6358/0.6839 remains in the fight, yet price struggles to chalk up anything meaningful to the upside. An eventual break of the said demand zone has another layer of demand close by at 0.6094/0.5866, while a recovery could eventually lead to trendline support-turned resistance (0.4776) making an appearance, followed by supply at 0.8303/0.8082.

Daily timeframe:

Supply at 1.6585/1.6625 came under siege Tuesday, leading to highs of 0.6645. 0.6680ish offers resistance (red oval), while proven supply can be seen at 0.6778/0.6731, which aligns with trendline resistance (0.7393).

The RSI recently exited oversold territory, trading south of 40.00.

H4 timeframe:

Supply at 0.6655/0.6629 aided a reasonably spirited recovery in the later hours of trade Tuesday. Technical developments here reveal channel resistance (0.6567) and trendline resistance (0.7031) also merge with the said supply base.

Despite the recently formed bearish candle, closing a touch off lows at 0.6583, a break of channel support (0.6434) is potentially eyed in order to help confirm additional downside.

H1 timeframe:

Following Tuesday’s Fed-induced advance through 0.66 to highs just south of 0.6655 and a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. at 0.6648, the pair retreated and reclaimed 0.66 into the close. You will also note the H1 candles retested the underside of 0.66 before turning to lows of 0.6579.

Although minor support may emerge off 0.6567 (yellow oval) 0.6550 represents healthy support, having seen the 100-period SMA drifting a few points beneath the level.

The RSI recently dipped from peaks of 76.00, now poised to revisit 50.00.

Structures of Interest:

Monthly demand at 0.6358/0.6839 is rapidly deteriorating, despite recent recovery. Daily price blew through the top edge of supply at 1.6585/1.6625, potentially weakening its foundation and signalling higher prices could be on the horizon.

Despite conflicting signals on the higher timeframes, H4 price shows promise to the downside, more so if we’re able to penetrate the current channel support. The retest at 0.66 on H1 suggests intraday sellers still likely have the upper hand, with 0.6550 next on tap as support. To reach this level, though, entails a break of the said H4 channel support.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only.